We updated our “Look Ahead” section of the The Weekly Crib Sheet today noting that Fed Chmn. Ben Bernanke will testify on Capitol Hill (as part of his semi-annual report to Congress) on Thursday, February 24.

WHY YOU CARE:  There are two important things to note:  1) the House Financial Services Cmte. wants to have a pre-hearing hearing as a primer, on February 23rd, which makes a lot of sense if you are  committee chairman Barney Frank and worried that your regulatory reform bill (HR 4173) that was sent to the Senate might get watered down; and 2) given that Chmn. Bernanke should also testify on the Senate side it seems like a good time to parse Senate questions on tweaks to the next Senate Banking Cmte. draft to Chmn. Christopher Dodd’s regulatory reform bill.  [Editor's Note: We posted this earlier today as "expected to testify."  It is now official].

Late word tonight that on Thursday Pres. Obama will create a deficit commission called the National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform with former Clinton White House Chief of Staff Erskine Bowles and former Sen. Alan Simpson (R-WY) heading it up.

WHY YOU CARE:  If the Senate had voted on creating the commission then Congress would have held a vote on whether to adopt the resulting recommendations.   Instead, by Pres. Obama having to create it via executive order, it means the commission’s findings are merely suggestions.  Take a read of CNN Senior White House Correspondent Ed Henry’s excellent write.  This is another example of why everything financial that touches Washington, DC in 2010 will be seen through a mid-term election lens.

The Weekly Crib Sheet for February 15^th-19^th:  The stories you’ll see on the front pages and network newscasts this week be – a) of course the Olympics, b) Afghanistan with both the push in Marja and the one year anniversary of Pres. Obama’s troop increase order, c) Iran for the obvious reasons, but also because Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton is traveling in the Middle East and will be asked about Iran repeatedly, d) in the wake of Sen. Evan Bayh’s retirement announcement a look at the 2010 political landscape – both presently and midterm election implications (we’re publishing late today so we confess this is an easy call, but we’ll note that Pres. Obama is doing events in Nevada for the poll challenged Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid at the end of the week as well).

MBA readers here’s WHY YOU CARE:  Between the Olympics and foreign affairs that’s a lot of oxygen and real estate (and we didn’t even mention the “country is still digging out of the snow” stories).  Still, there will be some stories at the intersection of Capitol Hill and Wall Street that stand do get some play outside of the business section, here’s what to look for…

1)  The Fed:  When Fed Chmn. Ben Bernanke was officially reappointed his statement noted how the Fed would make adjustments in policy once the threat of inflation outweighed the threat of the economy needing further emergency medication.  That deserved and made headlines, well this week we’ll get a window into the Fed’s thinking once again when the minutes of the January meeting are released.

2) Housing:  Building Permits and Housing Starts – both reports for January come out this week, and they will be hard to ignore as economists and journalists search for metaphoric measures of the economy’s health.

3)  Gearing Up for Next Week – Part 1:  Last week Toyota was to face congressional hearings on their recalls, with more planned for next week.  Thanks to both a snow storm and Congress’ embrace of recess, last week’s and next week’s hearings will happen at the same time.  In fact, we’ve added a section in addition to our “look ahead” list this week to outline the hearings that are not yet rescheduled after getting snowed out last week.

4)  Gearing Up for Next Week – Part 2:  On our “snowed out” list below are hearings ranging from Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner on the budget to Fed Chmn. Bernanke on economic stimulus.  What’s not on that list is the release of the Senate Banking Cmte. Chmn. Christopher Dodd’s revised financial regulatory legislation.  However, if Sen. Dodd wants to keep to his announced desire for a mark up at the end of February or start of March, then the end of next week seems like a good time to put that out.  Or to put it another way, the end of next week is the earliest we are likely to see it.  Capitol Hill finance reporters continue to dog this story – so if any trial balloons are launched you’ll be sure to know.

5) Gearing Up for Next Week – Part 3 – Get Ready for 2/25:  What interesting about the White House’s play for a televised health care summit is that depending on the type of press they get, we could see them doing the same thing on financial regulatory reform.  The lead up coverage to the debate will be as important to them in this regard as the coverage of, and post mortem of the debate itself.  We are watching this closely.

MBA wannabes here’s WHY YOU CARE:  Here’s how to cut through the clutter:  1) focus on good analysis pieces of the Fed minutes released this week, it will help give you a sense of what’s likely to happen for the rest of the year and 2) take a close look at our point above about the February 25^th health care summit.  If Democrats feel like they are scoring points, then the same may be done for financial reform.  The downside to either such summit is that nuance is rarely done well during political debates.

Here’s the week:

MONDAY 2/15

Pres. Obama: Returns to DC from Camp David.

TUESDAY 2/16

Pres. Obama: Jobs event at DC area training center.

Fed Watch:  Kansas City Fed Pres. Thomas Hoenig remarks at the Peterson-Pew Commission on Budget Reform (in DC).

WEDNESDAY 2/17

Economic Reports:  Building Permits (for Jan.), Export/Import Prices (for Jan.), Housing Starts (for Jan.), Mortgage Banker’s Assoc’s weekly mortgage application numbers.

Fed Watch:  Federal Open Market Cmte. releases minutes from 1/26-27 meeting.

Pres. Obama: Hosts Spain’s King Juan Carlos at the White House.

Historical Note:  This day marks the first anniversary of Pres. Obama’s order to increase troops in Afghanistan (from the Council on Foreign Relations’ World Events Calendar).

THURSDAY 2/18

Economic Reports: Initial Unemployment Claims (for 2/13), Producer Price Index (for Jan.).

Pres. Obama:  To announce the National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform to tackle the deficit with former Clinton Chief of Staff Erskine Bowles and former Sen. Alan Simpson (R-WY) heading it up (see CNN’s Ed Henry’s write), then meets with the Dalai Lama then travels to Colorado for a fundraiser for Sen. Michael Bennet (D-CO).[Updated: 2/16].

Fed Watch:  Fed Gov. Elizabeth Duke on “Unusual and Exigent: My First Year at the Fed” at the Economics Club of Hampton Roads.

FRIDAY 2/19

Economic Report: Core Producer Price Index (for Jan.).

Pres. Obama:  Economic event in Las Vegas with Senate Maj. Leader Harry Reid.

LOOK AHEAD:

February 22^nd:  Senate reconvenes to take up the jobs bill; House reconvenes as well.

February 22^nd:  SEC Advisory Cmte. meeting.

February 23^rd:  House Financial Services Cmte. hearing on the prospects for employment growth – held in advance of Fed Chmn. Ben Bernanke’s semi annual Humphrey-Hawkins testimony on Capitol Hill. [Updated: 2/16].

February 24^th:  House Financial Services Cmte. hearing on  Fed Chmn. Ben Bernanke’s semi annual Humphrey-Hawkins testimony on Capitol Hill.  Witness:  Bernanke, of course. [Updated: 2/17].

February 24^th:  Senate Homeland Security and Govt. Affairs Cmte. on 2011 budget.  Witness:  Homeland Security Secy. Janet Napolitano.

February 24^th:  House Oversight and Govt. Reform Cmte. on Toyota recalls.  Witnesses include:  Transportation Secy. Ray LaHood and Toyota’s North America President and CEO Yoshimi Inaba.

February 25^th:  Pres. Obama proposes to hold bipartisan televised health care summit on this date.

February 25^th:  House Energy and Commerce Cmte’s Oversight and Investigations Subcmte. on Toyota recalls.

March 1^st:  Ghost of Enron: Supreme Court hears Skilling v. United States.

March 2^nd:  House Financial Services Cmte. on the future of housing finance.  Witnesses invited include:  Treasury Secy. Timothy Geithner and HUD Secy. Shaun Donovan.

March 2^nd:  Senate Commerce, Science and Transportation Cmte. on Toyota recalls.

HEARINGS NOT YET RESCHEDULED AFTER GETTING SNOWED OUT:

Joint Economic Cmte.:  Hearing on job creation.  Witnesses include:  Congressional Budget Office Director Douglas Elmendorf.

House Hearing:  House Appropriations Cmte’s Homeland Security Subcmte on 2011 budget.  Witness:  Homeland Security Secy. Janet Napolitano.

House Hearing:  House Financial Services Cmte. on lending programs for small businesses.

House Hearing:  House Homeland Security Cmte on the 2011 budget.  Witness:  Homeland Security Secy. Janet Napolitano.

Senate Hearing:  Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Cmte. on Christmas bombing attempt of NW Flight 253.

Joint Economic Cmte.:  Hearing on Pres. Obama’s economic report.  Witnesses include:  Council of Economic Advisers Chwmn. Christina Romer.

House Hearing:  House Financial Services Cmte. on economic stimulus.  Witness:  Federal Reserve Chmn. Ben Bernanke.

House Hearing:  House Budget Cmte. on the 2011 budget.  Witness:  Treasury Secy. Timothy Geithner.

WhyYouCare.com expected a big week full of hearings on: a) Toyota recalls, b) the Federal Reserve and the economic stimulus, c) Treasury Secy. Timothy Geithner discussing the budget but really talking about regulatory reform, and of course d) the jobs bill in the Senate.

However, not one but two snow storms have conspired to thwart that, and now The Weekly Crib Sheet sits in our Word file waiting to launch for next week.   HOWEVER, we would sugget the following:  Snowed in Capitol Hill staffers with laoptops make excellent drafters when it comes to legislation.  We’ve said that the Senate Banking Cmte’s next regulatory reform draft should be out perhaps as early as next week.  In an odd way, we think the snow helps the drafting.

The Weekly Crib Sheet for February 1^st – 6^th:  The first week of February is all about a) jobs, jobs, and more jobs and b) reading the tea leaves on financial overhaul legislation in the Senate.

MBA readers here’s WHY YOU CARE:  In the wake of the Massachusetts special election to fill the late Sen. Edward Kennedy’s seat the administration has put health care on the side burner in the number two slot and the economy in the number one priority position.  But, there are a number of ways to say economy: jobs, unemployment, budgets, financial reform.  The synonyms abound this week.  So here’s what to look for…

1)  Jobs:  January’s unemployment numbers come out this Friday (2/5 noted below).  We all know it is a lagging indicator of the economy, and we all know it won’t improve dramatically for a while, however, that doesn’t work on Sunday talk shows, nightly newscasts, blogs, and most importantly campaign commercials.  Now that 2010 is here, the events this week (including a town hall with Pres. Obama) are about trying to frame the picture as it were for Democrats.  Look for more events like this in the coming weeks.

2) Budget Time:  Pres. Obama unveils his budget Monday (2/1) then his team have at least eight hearings on Capitol Hill this week.  Most importantly the budget hearings will work on three levels: a) questions about what is in the budget itself and the deficit, b) how the government plans to pay for additional job/economic programs, and c) anything that a particular House member or Senator has on their political agenda.  Look for a mix of theatrics splashed across the political pages, and some solid drill down stories crunching the numbers in the business pages.  Like the January unemployment numbers, the budget will get front page coverage this week.  Meanwhile, Office of Management and Budget Dir. Peter Orszag has four appearances (detailed below) on Capitol Hill and Treasury Secy. Timothy Geithner has three (also detailed below).  And speaking of Secy. Geithner…

3)  Budget Part 2:  Geithner Time:  Unfortunately for Treasury Secy. Geithner his three appearances on Capitol Hill will likely contain about 10% budget questions and 90% political questions on TARP, AIG, stimulus, etc.  The key here is whether he actually gets questions on components of the financial overhaul bill currently being retooled in the Senate Banking Committee.  That will not make front page news, but will find its way into the business pages.  You can be sure that Wall Street will watch for that, and this is where you should be too.

4)  How to Watch the Volcker/Bankers Hearings:  One reason that Senate Banking Committee Chairman Christopher Dodd’s latest draft of financial reform legislation has been delayed is the administration’s sudden move to announce what is now being called the “Volcker Rule” (explained below).  That language now has to be worked into the bill.  You may get a sense of it on Tuesday (2/2) during former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker’s appearance before the Senate Banking Committee (detailed below).  Better yet, listen to HOW it is going to get worked into the bill – that will offer a insight into both the status and the substance of Chairman Dodd’s legislation.  He wants it out of committee by the first part of March.  Possible, but the Senate Banking Committee has lots of work to do.  Similarly, when representatives from Citi, JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs appear before the same committee on Thursday (2/4) look for the same types of questions.  Substantively, what is in the legislation and where it stands is the paramount issue.

MBA wannabes here’s WHY YOU CARE:  Last week we said that the best way to cut through the clutter of coverage was to keep your eyes peeled for stories pointing out where health care is going.  We were right, and now we know it has taken a back seat to finance reform as the administration’s number one issue.  Similarly, we told you to keep on the look out for stories on the finance reform bill’s status in the Senate.  With the announcement last week of the proposal to limit some banking activities by those institutions with deposits, we now know that the Senate Banking Committee has to work that language into the bill before releasing the next draft.  Luckily, those hearings are this week.  So, this week we say, click through the business pages looking for pieces that decipher the substance of the Senate Banking Committee’s questions for Mr. Volcker and banking heads (Tuesday and Thursday respectively).  You’ll be glad you did.

Here’s the week:

MONDAY 2/1

Earnings:  Gannett.

Economic Reports:  Construction Spending, Personal Income & Spending (all for Dec.).

Pres. Obama: Submits his budget.

Treasury:  Asst. Treasury Secy. for Financial Institutions Michael Barr before the American Securitization Forum.

TUESDAY 2/2

Earnings:  MetLife, Inc.; News Corporation; The Dow Chemical Company; The Hershey Company; United Parcel Service, Inc.

Economic Reports:   Car & Truck Sales (for Jan.), Pending Home Sales (for Dec.).

Pres. Obama: Town hall meeting in New Hampshire on jobs.

Senate Hearing:  Senate Finance Committee holds a hearing on the 2011 budget. Witness:  Treasury Secy. Timothy Geithner.

Senate Hearing:  Senate Budget Committee holds a hearing on the 2011 budget.  Witness:  Office of Management and Budget Dir. Peter Orszag.

Senate Hearing:  Senate Banking Committee holds a hearing on “Prohibiting Certain High-Risk Investment Activities by Banks and Bank Holding Companies”  (aka the “Volcker Rule.”)  Witnesses include: Paul Volcker, chairman of Pres. Obama’s Economic Recovery Advisory Board and former Federal Reserve Chairman and Treasury Deputy Secretary Neal Wolin. [Updated: 2/2 to add Wolin].

Senate Hearing:  Senate Armed Services Cmte. on the 2011 Dept. of Defense budget and the 2011 Missile Defense Review plus the 2011 Quadrennial Defense Review.  Witnesses:  Defense Secy. Robert Gates and Joint Chiefs of Staff Adm. Mike Mullen.

House Hearing:  House Budget Cmte. holds a hearing on the 2011 budget.  Witness:  Office of Management and Budget Dir. Peter Orszag.

WEDNESDAY 2/3

Earnings:  Carlisle Companies; Cisco Systems; Comcast Corporation; Honda Motor Co. Ltd.; Lazard Ltd.; Pfizer; Time Warner Inc.; Visa, Inc.

Economic Report:   Mortgage Bankers Assoc’s weekly mortgage application info.

Pres. Obama:  Meets with governors on energy policy (at the White House).

Senate Hearing:  Senate Finance Committee holds a hearing on health care proposals. Witness:  HHS Secy. Kathleen Sebelius.

House Hearing:  House Ways and Means Committee holds a hearing on the 2011 budget.  Witness:  Treasury Secy. Timothy Geithner.

House Hearing:  House Ways and Means Committee holds a hearing on the 2011 budget.  Witness:  Office of Management and Budget Dir. Peter Orszag.

Treasury:  Acting Asst. Treasury Secy. for Financial Markets Karthik Ramanathan and Dep. Asst. Treasury Secy. for Federal Finance Matthew Rutherford re: Nov. 2009 Quarterly Refunding Statement and Webcast.

THURSDAY 2/4

Earnings:  Kellogg Co.; MasterCard Incorporated; Moody’s Corporation; Northrop Grumman; Sony Corporation.

Economic Report: Initial Unemployment Claims (for 1/30), Factory Orders (for Dec.).

Pres. Obama:  Attends Natl. Prayer Breakfast.

Senate Hearing:  Senate Budget Committee holds a hearing on the 2011 budget.  Witness:  Treasury Secy. Timothy Geithner.

Commerce Dept.:  Commerce Secy. Gary Locke speech on jobs at the Natl. Press Club.

Senate Hearing:  Senate Banking Committee to follow up the February 2nd hearing on risk and banks with second hearing on the “Volcker Rule.”  Witnesses include:  Goldman Sachs’ Managing Dir. Gerald Corrigan, Fmr. Citigroup CEO, and JPMorgan Chase’s executive VP and chief risk officer Barry Zubrow.

Senate Hearing:  Senate Commerce Committee is expected to have a hearing on the Federal Trade Commission’s role in protecting consumers with regards to financial services.

Senate Hearing:  Senate Finance Committee holds a hearing on the 2011 budget. Witness:  Office of Management and Budget Dir. Peter Orszag.

Senate Hearing:  Senate Judiciary Cmte’s Subcmte. on Antitrust on proposed Comcast/NBC Universal transaction.  Witnesses include:  Comcast CEO Brian Robert and NBC Universal CEO Jeff Zucker.

House Hearing:  House Energy & Commerce Cmte’s Subcmte. on Communications on proposed Comcast/NBC Universal transaction.  Witnesses include:  Comcast CEO Brian Robert and NBC Universal CEO Jeff Zucker.

FRIDAY 2/5

Economic Reports:  Consumer Credit (for Dec.), Hourly Earnings (for Jan.), and Unemployment Rate (for Jan.).

Pres. Obama:  TBD.

Treasury:  Treasury Chief Economist and Asst. Secy. for Economic Policy Alan Krueger – pen and pad briefing on unemployment numbers and economic recovery.

Hearing:  Joint Economic Cmte. hearing on January unemployment numbers.

House Hearing:  House Financial Services Cmte. and House Small Business Cmte. on small business lending programs. [Editor's Note: This is now postponed to a date later to be determined].[Updated: 2/2].

SATURDAY 2/6

Treasury:  Treasury Secy.. Geithner participates in a joint press conference with the G-7 Finance Ministers in Iqaluit, Canada.

LOOK AHEAD:

February 17^th:  Federal Open Market Cmte. releases minutes from 1/26-27 meeting.

February 10^th:  House Budget Cmte. on the 2011 budget.  Witness:  Treasury Secy. Timothy Geithner.

The week of January 25^th: The State of the Union is finally here – so this week we’re going to detail what to look for, and what will be overshadowed by its coverage.

MBA readers here’s WHY YOU CARE:  Given that we’ve hammered away at the high stakes game of what the Democrats can/can’t pass on Capitol Hill for Pres. Obama to list during the State of the Union, you might simply ask given the state of health care and financial reform – now what?  Here’s the “what”…

1)  Pictures are Worth a Thousand Votes:  Without health care and finance reform crossing his desk, Pres. Obama and his White House advisors held a number of emergency meetings after the much reported on Massachusetts special election and emerged with a press conference proposing to limit proprietary trading – aka “Glass-Steagall-lite.”  Capitol Hill and K Street were both stunned by the move that was made without much notice (we acknowledge that this grates against some of the reporting you read last week but we stand by our info).  On the surface this seems like more banker bashing in the wake of reading polls following the Massachusetts election.  That may be true, but it is also about a picture during the State of the Union.  Here it is – Scenario 1:  Pres. Obama announces his desire to pass legislation clipping banks’ wings on proprietary trading, Democrats jump to their feet and applaud and Republicans sit on their duffs.  That’s a powerful populist image to run in commercials during tough elections in the Fall.  Scenario 2:  Pres. Obama makes the same call for legislation and both Democrats and Republicans jump to their feet, now Pres. Obama gets the legislation he wants and Democrats can say they got something accomplished come the Fall elections.  This political calculation can be applied to how he will present health care, the so called “bank tax” and on and on.  AND, this is why we were not shocked at all when a POLITICO breaking news alert landed in our blackberries on January 23 informing everyone that Pres. Obama would show a “feisty” side during the State of the Union.  Translation:  Pres. Obama showing impatient energy with Congress plus the proper camera framing and the midterm election commercial films itself.

2)  Health Care is Linked to Financial Overhaul:  If health care truly can’t get done in some form by the midterm elections, look for the White House to keep going back to those post Massachusetts election polls that show the economy and jobs to be voters’ paramount concerns with health care a distant third.  That means the spotlight keeps on Senate Banking Cmte. Chmn. Dodd (by the way those “working groups” are very active this week doing meetings on the next draft of the Dodd finance reform bill).  The irony is that the two populist proposals pushed by the White House are not at the crux of the current legislation.  The question Wall Street should be asking itself is – in some ways does this help us?  Does the administration focus their two populist issues and relax on others?  Or is this a harbinger of the overall push for Democrats (and thus extra White House pressure on Chmn. Dodd who is in a personal position to compromise with Republicans given that he no longer faces re-election).  We suspect that the White House is realistic enough to understand Chmn. Dodd has to compromise with Republicans in order to get finance reform done.  Thus, we wouldn’t not be shocked to see a very modified Consumer Financial Protection Agency and curtailing of the Federal Reserve’s scope (but not without some internecine Democratic fighting).  And speaking of Fed. Chmn. Ben Bernanke and the Fed…

3)  Bernanke:  We’ve been pointing out for a long time that his re-confirmation hearings were held late and his term is up come January 31^st.  The latest statements from the White House and Capitol Hill indicate he will likely be reappointed (although nothing is for sure given that Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) has come out against him (1/25), and in some ways he is a beneficiary of the State of the Union sucking up the coverage oxygen this week by not making him a bigger story.  Same goes for those testifying before Congress on AIG this week (noted below), and you could even say that for the budget numbers that will come from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) this week (noted below).  Speaking of those budget numbers…

4)  Budget Numbers:  The CBO numbers may get little play on the nightly news and newspaper front pages because of the State of the Union, but you bet Republicans will be scrutinizing them.  And, if you check out our look ahead section you’ll note that Pres. Obama has to release his budget numbers very soon as well.  That’s why we think Friday afternoon is an excellent candidate to drop the White House budget numbers amidst the follow up to the State of the Union.  However, if they do come out Friday – it would likely be AFTER Pres. Obama addresses the House Republicans on their retreat.  That’s our reading of the tea leaves.

MBA wannabes here’s WHY YOU CARE:  We suggest the following strategy to cut through the clutter of news coverage:  1) Keep your focus on the second point we made above for the MBA readers – Capitol Hill reporters should have in the next week a sense of where health care is going, and thus the timing of finance reform, and 2) substantively look in the business pages for leaks as to the direction of the Senate Banking Cmte. “working groups” and where they are going on the next draft of the finance reform bill (although we bet you don’t see leaks on this before next week).

Here’s the week:

MONDAY 1/25

Economic Report:  Natl. Assoc. of Realtors info on existing homes sales (for Dec.).

Earnings: Apple Inc. and Halliburton.

GM:  GM to name permanent CEO.

Pres. Obama: Attends Middle Class Task Force meeting with VP Biden and Treas. Secy. Geithner.  Also, hosts LA Lakers at the White House.

TUESDAY 1/26

Economic Reports:  Case Shiller Home Price Index (for Nov.), Consumer Confidence (for Jan.), FHFA Home Price Index (for Nov.).

Earnings:  DuPont, Johnson & Johnson, Verizon and Yahoo, Inc.

Pres. Obama: TBD.

Fed Watch:  Federal Open Market Committee meeting (1/26-1/27).

Dem Leadership;  House Maj. Leader Rep. Steny Hoyer (D-MD) at the National Press Club on Dem agenda.

IMF’s Econ. Outlook:  The IMF holds a news conference on the global economic outlook (Washington, DC).

CBO Budget:  The Congressional Budget Office releases a 2010 budget (followed by a press conference by CBO Dir. Douglas Elmendorf).

Senate Hearing:  Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Cmte. on “Intelligence Reform: The Lessons and Implications of the Christmas Day Attack.”

WEDNESDAY 1/27

Economic Reports:   Mortgage Bankers Assoc’s weekly mortgage application info and New Home Sales (for Dec.).

Earnings:  BlackRock, Inc.; Caterpillar, Inc.; ConocoPhillips; E*TRADE Financial Corp.; The Boeing Company; and The McClatchy Company.

Pres. Obama:  Pres. Obama’s State of the Union.

Fed Watch:  Federal Open Market Committee meeting (1/26-1/27).

TARP Oversight Panel: TARP’s Congressional Oversight Panel holds a field hearing (Atlanta, GA) on commercial real estate.  Witnesses include:  Fed’s Assoc. Dir. of the Division of Banking Supervision.

House Hearing:  House Oversight and Govt. Reform Cmte. holds a hearing on the NY Fed Reserve Bank and AIG.  Witnesses include:  Treas. Secy. Timothy Geithner and TARP Special Inspector General Nail Barofsky, NY Fed General Counsel Thomas Baxter and Fmr. AIG CFO Elias Habayeb.

House Hearing:  House Budget Cmte. on economic outlook and the budget.

House Hearing:  House Financial Services Cmte’s International Monetary Policy and Trade Panel on “The State of Global Microfinance: How Public and Private Funds Can Effectively Promote Financial Inclusion for All.”

House Hearing:  House Homeland Security Cmte. on “Flight 253: Learning Lessons from an Averted Tragedy.”

SEC:  Securities and Exchange Commission to meet on (among other items) money market funds.

World Economic Forum:  Davos, Switzerland 1/27-1/31.

THURSDAY 1/28

Economic Report: Initial Unemployment Claims (for 1/23).

Earnings:  3M Company; Altria Group, Inc.; Amazon.com, Inc.; AT&T; Bristol-Myers Squibb; Colgate-Palmolive; Ford Motor Company; Invesco Ltd.; Janus Capital Group Inc.; Lockheed Martin; Microsoft; Nokia; Procter & Gamble Company; and Time Warner Cable, Inc.

Pres. Obama:  Event with VP Biden in Tampa, FL.

Bernanke:  Senate expected to vote on his reconfirmation (otherwise his term expires 1/31/10). [Updated: 1/27].

FDIC:  Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation Advisory Cmte. on Community Banking meets on community banks and capital.

Senate Hearing:  Senate Budget Cmte. on economic outlook and the budget.

World Economic Forum:  Davos, Switzerland 1/27-1/31.

FRIDAY 1/29

Earnings:  Chevron.

Economic Report:  Adjusted Fourth Quarter GDP.

FDIC:  The FDIC holds a symposium on Interest Rate Risk Management.  Attendees include:  Fed Vice Chmn. Donald Kohn (speech on Focusing on Bank Institution Interest Rate Exposure).

Pres. Obama:  To address GOP House retreat.

World Economic Forum:  Davos, Switzerland 1/27-1/31.

LOOK AHEAD:

February 1^st:  Pres. Obama to submit his budget.

February 1^st:  Economic Report:  Construction Spending.

February 2nd:  Senate Banking Cmte. hearing on risk and banks with the President’s Economic Recovery Advisory Board Chmn. Paul Volcker. [Updated: 1/27].

The week of January 18^th: All eyes are rightly on Massachusetts’ special election Tuesday for Sen. Ted Kennedy’s (D-MA) seat.   Much has been made about a) the implications for health care reform in Congress and b) the election as a bell weather for the 2010 midterm elections.  That coverage is both spot on and deserved.  However, there are few other items this week that will also crowd out business news from the front pages and network leads: Terror hearings.  If you look at our calendar below you will discover that both the Fort Hood shootings and the attempted Christmas bombing of North West flight 253 we get multiple hearings.  Additionally, the now infamous White House dinner crashers are also appearing before a congressional committee.  That doesn’t leave a lot of space on the front page.  However, we think a few business stories will break out beyond the business pages, so here’s what to look for…

MBA readers here’s WHY YOU CARE:  Remember our maxim – Capitol Hill and Pres. Obama are competing over what can be listed as accomplishments in the State of the Union address (now 1/27, see below) and what can’t.  So keep that in mind when you see these stories appear throughout the week.

1)  Banker Bashing Continues:  You’ll note on the calendar below that the House Financial Services Cmte. is going to hold a hearing on executive pay.  Why have one given that legislation has passed the House?  Because a) the State of the Union is next week and b) Senate Banking Cmte. Chairman Christopher Dodd announced his retirement – thus freeing him up to more easily compromise on legislation now that he doesn’t have to face the voters’ wrath.  House Financial Services Cmte. Chmn. Barney Frank will use the opportunity to wave the flag on the populist subject just as Chmn. Dodd is holding meetings to try to figure out what type of financial reform legislation he can get out of committee.  And speaking of Chmn. Dodd…

2)  Health Care is Linked to Financial Overhaul:  We know we’ve made this case before, but what you likely don’t know is that on Tuesday (noted below) Chmn. Dodd will meet with Pres. Obama at the White House (and this is after Pres. Obama’s economic briefing).  There has been a lot of coverage as to what happens in the Mass. Senate race – will Democrats ram through something to get it to Pres. Obama’s desk should the Republican win and foil the Democrats’ magical 60 votes in the Senate?  Maybe.  But, just as importantly, an embolden Republican party is likely to demand more from Chmn. Dodd in terms of compromise on financial reform.  Thus, we think that the topic on Tuesday between Pres. Obama and Chmn. Dodd has to do with both health care and the Mass. Senate race, as well as a bank shot on financial reform legislation.

3)  Jobs:  Both Congress and Pres. Obama have a word in common this week:  Jobs.  There are job hearings and job events.  Take a gander at the calendar below, you’ll have job events covered by one news outlet or another almost each day this week.

4)  Banks:  It is earnings time again and just about all the household banking names are reporting – obviously a market mover.  Less obviously, those numbers will make good fodder for Chmn. Frank’s executive pay hearing.

MBA wannabes here’s WHY YOU CARE:  We suggest the following strategy to cut through the clutter of news coverage:  1) keep your eyes on Chmn. Dodd as to both timing of his mark ups and hearings and substantively what he might signal to compromise on regarding financial reform, and 2) focus on the business page pieces as to what stays in the health care bill and what doesn’t.  Don’t worry about the 2010 midterm election pieces that will dominate the week – that story will still be around come the Sunday papers.

Here’s the week:

MONDAY 1/18 – Holiday

TUESDAY 1/19

Earnings: Citigroup Inc. and TD Ameritrade Holding Corp.

Pres. Obama:  Education event early, receives economic briefing in afternoon followed by a meeting with Senate Banking Cmte. Chmn. Christopher Dodd.

Special Election:  Voters in Mass. pick Sen. Ted Kennedy’s replacement.

Senate:   Reconvenes for pro forma session (fully back to business on 1/20).

House:  In session.

WEDNESDAY 1/20

Economic Reports:  Assoc. General Contractors of America’s releases 2010 Construction Employment and Business Forecast, Building Permits (for Dec.), Housing Starts (for Dec.), Mortgage Bankers Assoc.’s weekly mortgage application info and Producer Price Index (for Dec.).

UN Report:  UN releases report on World Economic Situation and Prospects Report on Recover in East and South Asia (from Council on Foreign Relations World Events Calendar).

Earnings:  Bank of America, Bank of New York Mellon Corp., M&T Bank Corp., Morgan Stanley, Starbucks, State Street Corporation, U.S. Bancorp, and Wells Fargo & Company.

Pres. Obama:  Holds National Mentoring Month event (additionally first anniversary of being in office).

Fed Watch:  NY Fed Pres. William Dudley speaks at the Partnership for New York City Discussion.

House Hearing:  House Homeland Security Cmte. on White House dinner breach.  Witnesses: Tareq and Michaele Salahi.

House Hearing: House Financial Services Cmte’s Housing and Community Opportunity Subcmte. on Housing Fairness Act of 2009 (HR 476).

House Hearing:  House Armed Services Cmte. on Fort Hood Shootings.  Witnesses: Co-Chairs of the Dept. of Defense’s Independent Review of Fort Hood – Togo West and Ret. Adm. Vernon Clark.

House Hearing:  House Armed Services Cmte’s Terrorism, Unconventional Threats and Capabilities Subcmte. on al Qaeda’s presence and threat in the Arabian Peninsula.

House Hearing:  Senate Commerce, Science and Transporation Cmte. on Dec. 25 bombing attempt on NW Flight 253.  Witnesses include:  Homeland Security Secy. Janet Napolitano, Natl. Counterterrorism Center’s Michael Leiter, Lee Hamilton and Tom Kean – both Co-Chmn. of the Natl. Security Preparedness Group.

Winter Meeting:  US Conference of Mayors (in DC).

THURSDAY 1/21

Economic Reports.: Initial Unemployment Claims (for Jan.), Leading Indicators (for Dec.).

Earnings:  American Express Company, Capital One Financial Corp., Continental Airlines, Fifth Third Bankcorp, Goldman Sachs, Google, Legg Mason, PNC Financial Services Group, Southwest Airlines, and Xerox Corporation.

World Bank Report:  World Bank releases Annual Global Economic Prospects report (from Council on Foreign Relations World Events Calendar).

Pres. Obama:  Economic and jobs event with the US Conference of Mayors at the White House.

Senate Hearing:  Senate Appropriations Cmte’s Labor, Health and Human Services, Education and Related Agencies Subcmte. on job creation.

Senate Hearing:  Senate Armed Services Cmte. on Fort Hood Shootings.  Witnesses: Co-Chairs of the Dept. of Defense’s Independent Review of Fort Hood – Togo West and Ret. Adm. Vernon Clark.

House Hearing:  House Science and Technology’s Technology and Innovation Subcmte. on job creation.

House Hearing:  House Financial Services Cmte’s Financial Institutions and Consumer Credit Subcmte. on bank failures and seizures.  Witnesses include:  FDIC’s Dir. of Resolutions and Receiverships Mitchell Glassman, Office of the Comptroller’s Sr. Dep. Comptroller for Midsize and Community Bank Supervision Jennifer Kelly and Treasury Dept’s Dir. of Investments David Miller.

House Hearing:  House Budget Cmte. on long term deficits.  Witnesses include:  Center of America Progress Pres. John Podesta.

FRIDAY 1/22

Earnings:  BB&T Corporation, General Electric, Kimberly-Clark, McDonald’s Corporation, Merck Ltd., State Bancorp Inc., and SunTrust.

Pres. Obama:  Town hall economic event in Elyira, Ohio.

Gitmo:  Original deadline set by Obama administration to close Gitmo facility for terror suspects (from Council on Foreign Relations World Events Calendar).

House Hearing:  House Financial Services Cmte. on executive compensation.

SATURDAY 1/23

House Field Hearing:  House Financial Services Cmte’s Housing and Community Opportunity Subcmte. on foreclosures in Minneapolis and St. Paul.

LOOK AHEAD:

January 25^th:  Federal Open Market Committee meeting (two day).

January 25^th:  Natl. Assoc. of Realtors info on existing homes sales.

January 27th:  Pres. Obama’s State of the Union.

January 27th:  House Oversight and Govt. Reform Cmte. holds a hearing on the NY Fed Reserve Bank and AIG.  Witnesses include:  Treas. Secy. Timothy Geithner and TARP Special Inspector General Nail Barofsky, NY Fed General Counsel Thomas Baxter and Fmr. AIG CFO Elias Habayeb.

January 27th:  Pres. Obama to address House Republicans at the GOP annual retreat.

January 31^st:  Fed Chmn. Ben Bernanke’s term expires (needs full Senate vote).

February 1^st:  Pres. Obama to submit his budget (according to the POLITICO).

The week of January 11^th: Unlike other weeks where business news is kicked to the inside section of the paper and the back of the newscast, this week will see many economic stories appear as the lead.  Why?  Because it just happens that the main economic stories this week are equally political stories – which means they’ll be covered in a horse race fashion of who is up and who is down.  Example: Health care.  Example:  Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission hearing.  Example:  Treas. Secy. Timothy Geithner and the latest AIG stories.  Still, we think of few of these will get substantive treatment, so here’s what to look for…

MBA readers here’s WHY YOU CARE:  Remember our maxim – Capitol Hill and Pres. Obama are competing over what can be listed as accomplishments in the State of the Union address and what can’t.  So keep that in mind when you see these stories appear throughout the week.

1)  Banker Bashing:  The Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission holds its first hearings this week (1/13 & 1/14) with TARP bank heads testifying at the first hearing, and regulators testifying at the second (names listed on the calendar below – and well worth your time).  We’ve seen some of the suggested questions floating around the internet and are legitimately impressed.  Still, we cringe at the thought of another AIG like shout fest.  So why are we flagging this as substantive?  The answer is that the commissioners are not elected officials and thus have less to pose for, and thus might – just might – embrace substantive questions like leveraging.  This could actually be a terrific window into what bankers think are the solutions – particularly important given that Senate Banking Cmte. Chmn. Christopher Dodd’s revised financial reform bill draft has yet to be released (as of our posting 1/11).  And speaking of Sen. Dodd…

2)  Health Care is Linked to Financial Overhaul:  We’ve made this case before, but it is true – Sen. Dodd is wearing two hats: health care and finance reform.  Look for the pieces this week that detail what is going into the ultimate bill to hit Pres. Obama’s desk because it will tell you a) whether it will garner enough support to be signed into law, and b) the extent Sen. Dodd is distracted and focused on health care out of necessity and not on finance reform.

3)  Dodd:  As frequent WhyYouCare.com readers you were not surprised at Chmn. Dodd’s retirement announcement given that we’ve been saying that was a real possibility for a while.  Some think this will prolong getting finance reform done.  We think maybe a little but not a lot.  However, we can tell you that most of K Street and Capitol Hill think this means there’s a greater chance of it actually passing the Senate.  But what will it look like?  It will pass because his retirement makes compromise much easier for both Chmn. Dodd and Senate Republicans.  The trick is how much progress will be made on the new draft bill being crafted by those Senate Banking Cmte. “working groups” by the time the Senate is back in session next week?  Getting a new draft bill out by the time the Senate returns and refocuses will go a long way in keeping pace.  Ironically, Chmn. Dodd’s retirement hurts Pres. Obama in one very important way – it virtually guarantees that finance reform won’t pass in time for the State of the Union.

4)  Jobs Bill:  We’re hoping to get a substantive read on the jobs bill this week as we know progress is being made behind the scenes.

MBA wannabes here’s WHY YOU CARE:  We suggest noting our first point above to the MBA readers – keep your eyes on coverage of the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission.  But, look for the pieces that focus on what the bankers think are the solutions.  Given that Chmn. Dodd is still working on his new draft, and his new breathing room to compromise, those answers might just be a bit of foreshadowing to what ends up in the bill.

Here’s the week:

MONDAY 1/11

Pres. Obama: Hosts dinner for combatant commanders.

Health Care:  AFL-CIO Pres. Richard Trumka speaks at the National Press Club.  Prediction:  Lots of questions about “Cadillac health care plans.”

Launch:  Tucker Carlson’s TheDailyCaller.com launches.

TUESDAY 1/12

Economic Report: Trade Balance (for November).

House:  Returns this day for two days before leaving for retreat.

FDIC:  Board Meeting.

WEDNESDAY 1/13

Economic Report:  Federal Reserve Beige Book, Mortgage Bankers Assoc’s weekly mortgage application info.

Pres. Obama:  Meets with House and Senate Dem leadership [Updated 1/13].

Polling Obama:  Quinnipiac Poll on Pres. Obama’s first year in office released at the National Press Club.

Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission:  Hearing witnesses include: J.P. Morgan Chase’s Jamie Dimon ; Goldman Sachs’ Lloyd Blankfein; Bank of America’s Brian Moynihan; and Morgan Stanley’s fmr CEO (now chairman).

THURSDAY 1/14

Economic Reports.: Initial Unemployment Reports (for 1/9), Retail Sales (for December).

Pres. Obama:  Speech on “Forum on Modernizing Government.”  Will visit returning House Dems at their retreat.  Will Announce tax on top US banks.

Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission:  Hearing witnesses include: AG Eric Holder, FDIC Chrwmn. Sheila Bair, SEC Chrwmn. Mary Schapiro and Asst. AG Lanny Breuer.

FRIDAY 1/15

Economic Report.: Consumer Price Index (for December).

LOOK AHEAD:

Week of 1/18:  House Oversight and Govt. Reform Cmte. holds a hearing on the NY Fed Reserve Bank and AIG.  Witness:  Treas. Secy. Timothy Geithner.

January 19th:  Senate returns.

January 22^nd :  House Financial Services Cmte. to hold hearing on say on pay. [Updated 1/14].

January 25^th:  Natl. Assoc. of Realtors info on existing homes sales.

January 26th:  Possible day for Pres. Obama’s State of the Union (previously predicted 2/2/10 – but White House announced it would not bump season premier of “Lost”).

January 25^th:  Federal Open Market Committee meeting (two day).

January 31^st:  Fed Chmn. Ben Bernanke’s term expires (needs full Senate vote).

February 2^nd:  Pres. Obama to submit his budget.

The week of December 14^th is focused on health care in the Senate, the White House’s effort to frame the discourse around financial overhaul legislation when the Senate returns in January, climate change, Afghanistan and jobs.  This week will reveal whether or not the Senate can get health care done before the holidays.  We suspect most political reporting will be focused on prospects for passage, and the consequences for both parties if it doesn’t.  A few additional headlines that will compete for business news this week off Capitol Hill are Afghanistan (Secretaries Gates and Clinton are on the Hill – noted on the calendar below) and Pres. Obama’s trip to Copenhagen to talk climate change.  Still, here are a few business stories that we think will compete for front page space….

MBA readers here’s WHY YOU CARE:  Remember our maxim – Capitol Hill and Pres. Obama are competing over what can be listed as accomplishments in the State of the Union address next year and what can’t.  Just take a look at this week:

1)  Banker Bashing:  Pres. Obama holds a meeting with Wall Street leaders (assuming the fog at New York airports lift) today to a) encourage them to lend more but b) really push them to get out of the way of Senate Banking Cmte. Chmn. Christopher Dodd come January when he focuses anew on financial overhaul.   We think the White House is keenly aware of how worried middle of the road and conservative Democrats are over the legislation – and we know they took note that the House’s passage was entirely along party lines.  Thus, we think today’s event is more about creating public pressure on Wall Street than anything else.

2)  Health Care is Linked to Financial Overhaul:  You may say, huh?  Hear us out.  We would suggest that health care is also a economic story – not just how much the latest plan will cost according to the Congressional Budget Office (which is what much of Capitol Hill is waiting for this week) – but because if Democrats are not able to get health care done before the State of the Union it will put renewed pressure on Sen. Dodd to shepherd financial overhaul legislation through the Senate.  Get health care to Pres. Obama’s desk, then financial overhaul is still a top priority, but not do or die politically for Democrats looking to tout accomplishments in what will likely be a brutal midterm 2010 election season.

3)  Jobs Bill:  You know unemployment is a lagging indicator, but that doesn’t help someone out of a job and voting in the 2010 midterm elections.  Looks for behind the scenes Capitol Hill action on a jobs bill through this week and the holiday.

MBA wannabes here’s WHY YOU CARE:  We would suggest keeping your eyes out for point #2 listed above.  That’s really the crux here – the Congressional Budget Office is adding up the numbers of the latest health care plan in the Senate – look for that story on the cost, it will tell you whether it is going to pass or not.  THEN, look for stories as to what Sen. Dodd thinks he can get done come January on financial overhaul legislation – he’s already said publicly he it won’t happen in 2009.

MONDAY 12/14

Pres. Obama:  Meets with Wall Street leaders to talk lending and financial overhaul legislation.

Climate Change Conf.: Through 12/18 in Copenhagen.

 

TUESDAY 12/15

Earnings:  Best Buy.

Economic Report: Producer Price Index (for Nov.)

Pres. Obama:  Speech on home energy efficiency.

House Hearing:  House Approps Cmte’s Defense Subcmte on Afghanistan policy.  Witnesses:  Defense Secy. Robert Gates and Secy. of State Hilary Rodham Clinton.

House Hearing:   House Financial Services Cmte. on “Covered Bonds: Prospects for a U.S. Market Going Forward”.

Climate Change Conf.: Through 12/18 in Copenhagen.

 

WEDNESDAY 12/16

Economic Report:  Building Permits and Housing Starts (for Nov.), Consumer Price Index (for Nov.), Mortgage Bankers Assoc’s weekly mortgage application data.

Pres. Obama:  TBD.

Fed Watch:  Two day Federal Open Market Cmte. meeting (rate decision).

Climate Change Conf.: Through 12/18 in Copenhagen.

 

 THURSDAY 12/17

Earnings:  FedEx, General Mills, Nike.

Economic Report.: Initial Unemployment Claims (for 12/12).

Pres. Obama:  Leaves for climate change conference in Copenhagen.

Bernanke:  Senate Banking Cmte. to vote on the reappointment of Fed Chmn. Bernanke.

Greenspan:  Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Cmte. on “Safeguarding the American Dream” (aka – what to do about that deficit).  Witnesses include:  Fmr. Fed Chmn. Alan Greenspan. [Updated:  12/16/09].

House Hearing:  House Financial Services Cmte’s Housing and Community Opportunity Subcmte. hold hearing on the Housing Fairness Act of 2009 (HR 476).

House Hearing:  House Govt. Reform and Oversight Cmte’s Domestic Policy Subcmte. on “The US Govt. as Dominant Shareholder.”  Witness:  Asst. Treas. Secy. for Financial Stability Herbert Allison, Jr.  [Updated:  12/16/09].

Climate Change Conf.: Through 12/18 in Copenhagen.

 

 FRIDAY 12/18

Pres. Obama:  Attends climate change conference in Copenhagen.

 

LOOK AHEAD:

December 27th:  30^th anniversary of the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan (from the Council on Foreign Relations’ World Events Calendar).