Answer: Mosh pits.

The latest Capitol Hill kerfuffle on the financial overhaul legislation saga revolves around comments made by House Minority Leader John Boehner (R-OH) to the American Bankers Association 2010 DC Summit (previously flagged on The Weekly Crib Sheet).  According to MarketWatch Rep. Boehner said:

“Don’t let those little punk staffers take advantage of you and stand up for yourselves…  All of us are hearing from our friends and constituents on lack of credit, you can’t get a loan, the more your government takes and taxes, the more regulations you have to comply with the more cost you have there and less amount you are going to have available to loan to customers.” (Click here for the rest).

Such a salvo goes rarely unreturned in Capitol corridors, thus House Financial Services Cmte. Chmn. Barney Frank (D-MA) quickly blasted out a press release response:  “I am appalled that a Leader of the House, who must know what good work is done by our staffs, would take such an inaccurate cheap-shot at these people, for the purpose of ingratiating himself with bankers or any other group.” (Click here for the rest).

WHY YOU CARE:  We studiously don’t take sides (but we will note Dem & GOP staff have always been top drawer in our experience) and like to stick to our media analysis of important business stories and our futures calendar, but this actually falls into the former category.  No, really.  The problem is that banking rarely gets a sexy press angle, and frankly this is catnip for Capitol Hill press.  Thus, we think you’ll see this on the news tonight, the web today, and papers tomorrow.  The bummer?  We were really digging and appreciating the pieces breaking down Chmn. Dodd’s proposed legislation and analyzing what might or might not get done in the Senate Banking Cmte.  There are only so many reporters to go around given the skeleton crews that make up news bureaus these days.  Thus, if someone is writing on this, they’re not writing on…

Normally we just update The Weekly Crib Sheet – but this is worth an extra post:  Fed Chmn. Ben Bernanke and fmr. Fed Chmn. and current Chmn. of the President’s Economic Recovery Advisory Board Paul Volcker are now among the witnesses for the House Financial Services Cmte’s hearing 3/17 on “Examining the Link Between Fed Bank Supervision and Monetary Policy.”

WHY YOU CARE:  Forget the title of the hearing, this is about Senate Banking Cmte. Chmn. Christopher Dodd’s new financial reform bill unveiled 3/15.  Remember when we told you in The Weekly Crib Sheet that although Chmn. Dodd didn’t have a hearing scheduled this week on his new draft bill that it didn’t really matter given the number of players testifying or appearing this week on the topic elsewhere?  Well, Chmn. Frank’s witness list just made that point all the more salient.

As we noted yesterday in The Weekly Crib Sheet there are a couple of important events today: 1) the Fed meets on rates and 2) Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, OMB Dir. Peter Orszag and Natl. Council of Economic Adviser Chwmn. Christina Romer are testifying on Capitol Hill today before the House Appropriations Cmte. ostensibly regarding the 2011 fiscal outlook.

WHY YOU CARE:  First, look for stories later today and tomorrow morning on what Geithner/Orszag/Romer have to say on the new financial overhaul legislation dropped by Senate Banking Cmte. Chmn. Christopher Dodd (D-CT) yesterday.  Second – and yes we acknowledge the numbers in and of themselves are not breaking news – we think it is always interesting when you can see the federal government spokespeople map out what they think will happen on jobs and inflation for 2011 and 2012.   You can read the entire Geithner/Orzag/Romer jointly written testimony, but here’s an excerpt that caught our eye:

“As the pace of job creation picks up in 2011 and 2012, there is likely to be greater progress in reducing unemployment. Nonetheless, because of the severe toll the recession has taken on the labor market, the unemployment rate is likely to remain elevated for an extended period. The forecast projects that in the fourth quarter of 2011, the unemployment rate will be 8.9 percent, and that by the fourth quarter of 2012, it will be 7.9 percent.

Inflation. Because of the high levels of slack in the economy, we expect inflation to remain low and see little risk of substantial increases in inflation. At the same time, inflation expectations appear to be well anchored, and so we do not expect inflation to fall substantially further or turn into outright deflation. We project inflation (on a fourth-quarter-to-fourth-quarter basis, as measured by the GDP price index) of 1.0 percent in 2010, 1.4 percent in 2011, and 1.7 percent in 2012.”

As advertised Senate Banking Cmte. Chmn. Christopher Dodd (D-CT) unveiled his new draft legislation on financial reform.

Here’s the summary from the Senate Banking Cmte., and here’s the actual revised bill.

WHY YOU CARE:  These are the tools by which all of K St. and Capitol Hill will be reviewing the new bill.  There are already good thumbnail outlines on the web, but we think you’ll see breakdowns of niche areas of the bill by Wednesday – at this length it will take a least a day to digest.

The Weekly Crib Sheet for March 15^th-21^st:  Health care and financial overhaul Super Bowl is here!  Normally we would first break down the stories that will compete for front page space with business pieces that deserve more press.  However, this week is all about health care and financial reform, thus we think best to just get to it.  Our one note is this:  a) The NCAA men’s basketball tournament starts this week.  That means any health care victory is going to have a tough time competing for the type of attention that will deeply resonate with men this weekend (you can bet the DNC and RNC are running the numbers on that); and b) Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton speaks before the pro-Israel AIPAC conference this coming Sunday (3/21), and given the current Jerusalem settlements saga, that will certainly garner front page headlines.

MBA readers here’s WHY YOU CARE:

1)  Financial Regulatory Reform – What We Know:  Senate Banking Cmte. Chmn. Christopher Dodd has a 2pm ET presser (3/15) with the expectation of the new draft language coming out about the same time.  His Banking Cmte. counterpart Sen. Richard Shelby (R-AL) is on CNBC this morning and may make news before Chmn. Dodd does, we’ll see.  We suggest keeping your eyes on Shelby, he’s been saying Republicans are a completely united front in the Cmte., that may be so, but any signal of a GOP fissure means someone is going to break off.  Coverage details of the bill have been pretty good thus far (Wall Street Journal’s Damian Paletta and Politico’s Vicotria McGrane deserving mentions).  Substantively we hear that the Reed/Gregg Over-the-Counter derivatives language will come later as an amendment, and will not be in the bill for the new release.  Speaking of amendments, Chmn. Dodd wants them by this Friday (3/19) in order to have a mark up next week (3/22 or 3/23) with a Cmte. vote by next Friday (3/26) when Congress leaves for recess.

2) Financial Regulatory Reform – What We Know You Don’t Know:  Although there isn’t a Senate Banking Cmte. hearing this week on Chmn. Dodd’s new release there may as well be one.  Why?  Because just about everyone you’d hope would testify on this will either be testifying elsewhere before Congress or speaking publicly before a financial audience.  We’ve listed them all below day by day, but here are the names so you appreciate our point:  Treasury Secy. Timothy Geithner, OMB Dir. Peter Orszag and Council of Economic Advisers Chwmn. Christina Romer, House Financial Services Cmte. Chmn. Barney Frank, SEC Chwmn. Mary Schapiro, Senate Banking Cmte. members Sen. Mark Warner (D-VA) and Sen. Bob Corker (R-TN), Natl. Economic Council Chmn. Lawrence Summers, Senate Banking Cmte. Ranking Member Richard Shelby (R-AL), Fed Gov. Elizabeth Duke and FDIC Chwmn. Sheila Bair.

3) Health Care:  Pres. Obama moved his departure to all points Indonesia and Australia from 3/18 to 3/21 in anticipation of a health care vote.  Conventional wisdom right now says the vote comes Friday (3/19) or Saturday (3/20).

4) Broadband:  That’s right, broadband.  The FCC releases Tuesday (3/16) a national broadband strategy.  If this had come out another week, it would have gotten big headlines.  As it stands, it won’t get the type of coverage due to financial reform and health care.

5) No Child Left Behind:  Today (3/16) Pres. Obama releases a re-write of the No Child Left Behind education policy.  It will undoubtedly get some headlines today and managed to as well over this past weekend.

MBA wannabes here’s WHY YOU CARE:  The trick will be not in the coverage today, but in the coverage later in the week once the bill has been digested.  Additionally, when the amendments come in on Friday, look for pieces on Sunday and Monday (3/29) peeling back the substantive points.

Here’s the week:

MONDAY 3/15

Pres. Obama:  Talks health care in Ohio, releases proposed re-write of No Child Left Behind education policy.

Health Care:  Ranking Member House Rules Cmte. David Dreier (R-CA) holds press conference on health care legislation rules/process.

Jobs Bill:  Senate resumes debate on the jobs bill (HR 2847).

TUESDAY 3/16

Earnings: Deutsche Bank and Discover Financial Services.

Economic Reports: Building Permits, Export/Import Prices and Housing Starts (all for Feb.).

Fed Watch:   Federal Open Market Cmte. meeting on rates (most watchers/coverage not expecting any change).

House Financial Services Cmte’s Subcmte. on International Monetary Policy and Trade:  Hearing on “Rebuilding Haiti’s Competitiveness and Private Sector.”

House Hearing:  House Appropriations Cmte. on 2011 outlook.  Witnesses:  Treasury Secy. Geithner, OMB Dir. Peter Orszag and Council of Economic Advisers Chwmn. Christina Romer.

Broadband Announcement: Federal Communications Commission presents national broadband plan.

WEDNESDAY 3/17

Economic Report:   Mortgage Bankers Assoc’s weekly mortgage info, Producer Price Index (for Feb.).

Pres. Obama Hosts Irish Taoiseach Brian Cowen at the White House.

House Financial Services Cmte. 10a: Hearing on “The Administration’s Proposal to Revitalize Severely Distressed Public and Assisted Housing: The Choice Neighborhoods Initiative”.

House Financial Services Cmte. 2p: Hearing on “Examining the Link Between Fed Bank Supervision and Monetary Policy”.  Witnesses to now include:  Fed Chmn. Ben Bernanke and fmr. Fed Chmn. and current Chmn. of the President’s Economic Recovery Advisory Board Paul Volcker [Editor's Note: Witnesses updated 3/16].

House Hearing:  House Appropriations Cmte’s Financial Services Subcmte. on fiscal 2011 appropriations.  Witness: SEC Chwmn. Mary Schapiro.

American Bankers Assoc. 2010 Summit in DC:  Guest speakers include:  House Minority Leader John Boehner (R-OH), Office of Thrift Supervision Acting Dir. John Bowman, Comptroller of the Currency John Dugan and Small Business Administration Administrator Karen Mills.

THURSDAY 3/18

Economic Reports:  Consumer Price Index (for Feb.), Initial Unemployment Claims (for 3/13).

Pres. Obama:  Was to leave for Indonesia and Australia, but moved departure to 3/21 in anticipation of health care vote in the House either 3/19 or 3/20.

TARP Bonuses:  House takes up a bill to tax bonuses for certain TARP aid recipients (HR 1586).

House Hearing:  House Appropriations Cmte’s Financial Services Subcmte. on fiscal 2011 appropriations and the federal judiciary.

House Financial Services Cmte’s Subcmte. on Capital Markets, Insurance, and Government Sponsored Enterprises: Hearing on “Insurance Holding Company Supervision.”

Pew Financial Reform Project Conference:  Event examines financial reform legislation.  Speakers include:  Senate Banking Cmte. members Sen. Mark Warner (D-VA) and Sen. Bob Corker (R-TN), Natl. Economic Council Chmn. Lawrence Summers, and fmr. Treasury Asst. Secy. Phillip Swagel (moderated by The Atlantic’s Clive Crook).

American Bankers Assoc. 2010 Summit in DC:  Guest speakers include:  House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-MD), Ranking Member Senate Banking Cmte. Richard Shelby (R-AL), Fed Gov. Elizabeth Duke and FDIC Chwmn. Sheila Bair.

Treasury Watch:  Treasury Chief Economist and Asst. Secretary for Economic Policy Alan Krueger has keynote remarks at the Bond Buyer’s National Municipal Bond Summit.

FRIDAY 3/19

Health care:  Capitol Hill speculation that the House could vote this day (or Saturday 3/20) on the health care bill.

Dodd’s Bill:  If the Senate Banking Cmte. is really going to mark up the revised financial overhaul legislation the week of 3/22, then realistically amendments need to be in by this day.

SATURDAY 3/20

Health care:  Capitol Hill speculation that the House could vote this day (or Friday 3/19) on the health care bill.

SUNDAY 3/21

Pres. Obama:  Departs for Indonesia and Australia. [Editor's Note: WH Press Secy. Gibbs announced 3/18 that Pres. Obama has moved this trip to June (in anticipation of a health care vote)].

Secy. Clinton:  Speaks before pro-Israel group AIPAC.

LOOK AHEAD:

March 22^nd-26^th: Senate Banking Cmte. expected to mark up draft bill and hopes to begin voting on financial overhaul bill by the end of the week.  Media reports indicate Chmn. Dodd wishes to vote the bill out of Cmte. on 3/26 prior to recess,  additionally Senate Banking Cmte. Republicans have pushed back on the calendar. [Editor's Note:  Updated 3/16, Chmn. Dodd will now have a mark up on 3/22/10].

March 23^rd:  House Financial Services Cmte. on the future of housing finance.  Witnesses invited include:  Treasury Secy. Timothy Geithner and HUD Secy. Shaun Donovan. [Editor’s Note:  Originally scheduled for 3/2/10].

March 23^rd: Economic reports due this day:  Natl. Assoc. of Realtors’ Existing Home Sales and Federal Housing Finance Agency’s House Price Index estimates.

April 7^th-9^th:  Financial Crisis Inquire Commission to hold hearing on “Subprime Lending and Securitization and Government-Sponsored Enterprises.”  Fmr. Federal Reserve Chmn. Alan Greenspan is reported by the Wall Street Journal to be among those who will appear before the congressional panel.

When we posted The Weekly Crib Sheet at the start of the week we had two points for you:  a) get read for trial balloons on finance reform legislation because we are getting close to a new draft from Senate Banking Cmte. Chmn. Christopher Dodd, and b) the earliest we thought you’d see a new draft from Chmn. Dodd was the end of this week.

Today Chmn. Dodd announced his new reform legislation draft will be released this coming Monday, March 15th with a markup to follow on March 22nd.  We are posting his press release below for your information.

As a WHY YOU CARE proof in concept, when we said there would be trial balloons we meant things like THIS STORY regarding Senate Democrats pushing their own Volcker Rule legislation, and THIS STORY regarding Senate Ranking member Richard Shelby pushing yet another idea regarding the Consumer Financial Protection Agency proposal.

Chmn. Dodd’s press release from today:

Dodd Statement on Financial Reform

WASHINGTON – Today Senate Banking Committee Chairman Chris Dodd (D-CT) issued the following statement on financial reform.

“On Monday, I will present to my colleagues a substitute to the original financial reform package, unveiled last November.”

“Over the last few months, Banking Committee members have worked together to try and produce a consensus package.  Together we have made significant progress and resolved a many of the items, but a few outstanding issues remain.”

“It has always been my goal to produce a consensus package.  And we have reached a point where bringing the bill to the full committee is the best course of action to achieve that end.  I plan to hold a full committee markup the week of March 22nd.”

“I have been fortunate to have a strong partner in Senator Corker, and my new proposal will reflect his input and the good work done by many of our colleagues as well.”

“Our talks will continue, and it is still our hope to come to agreement on a strong bill all of the Senate can be proud to support very soon.”

# # #

The Weekly Crib Sheet for March 8^th-12^th:  The stories you’ll see on the front pages and network newscasts this week will be lots of domestic politics and a little foreign policy.  Specifically, the state of Democrats in New York will continue to be scrutinized by the media until all things New York Gov. David Patterson and House Ways and Means Chmn. Charlie Rangel shake out.  Then, as both health care reform limps along and financial reform keeps Capitol Hill staffers equally busy behind the scenes 24/7, the plot line in coverage will naturally return to personality politics.  Don’t believe us?  Well, if you are covering a story, but don’t have the draft language what do you do?  You analyze the message and the messenger.  Don’t take our word for it, here’s the Atlantic’s profile of Treasury Secretary Geithner, the New York’s version of the same, the New York Times’ take on White House messenger David Axelrod, and the New York Times Magazine preview of James Baker’s look at White House CoS Rahm Emanuel.  We think you’ll see lots more to come like this, and in the interim look for TV news to do their versions of these print pieces.  On the foreign policy front, Iraq will get coverage post election and given that Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton addresses the U.N. on women’s issues at the end of the week (noted on the calendar below) we think that will help open the door to further Iraq, Iran, and Pakistan coverage.  That’s a pretty stiff line up for economic recovery stories to break through, but we do think there will be a few that leap from the business pages to the front pages… Here’s our take…

MBA readers here’s WHY YOU CARE:

1)  Financial Regulatory Reform – What We Know:  Senate Banking Cmte. Chmn. Christopher Dodd continues to work behind the scenes.  It seems like from what we hear that a draft is not likely to come early in the week, maybe at the end… perhaps.  We caution because every time there seems to be progress another step is taken backward instead of forward (example: the fire drill last week over the Volcker Rule language).  Secretary Geithner is on Capitol Hill this week testifying (noted below) as is the Asst. Treasury Secy. for Financial Institutions Michael Barr (also noted below), between those appearances and Secretary Geithner’s speech at the end of the week there’s ample opportunity to publicly dissect any trial balloons that might pop up prior to release of Chmn. Dodd’s next draft (not to mention a number of House Financial Service Cmte. hearings that will allow Chmn. Frank to both do the same and push his own agenda, all of which we’ve outlined below).

2) Health care:  Pres. Obama has a self imposed deadline for movement on health care by March 18^th, that makes us think March still feels like a big month.  The White House is doing a better media management job in terms of keeping this drumbeat alive.  We think we’ll see more leaks on negotiations and substance – so expect to see that at some point on the front pages this week.

3) Fed Watch:  Look for more pieces examining how the Obama administration will make over the Fed with the number of open seats.  This plays perfectly into the current state of play as the Fed continues to tussle for regulatory ground.

MBA wannabes here’s WHY YOU CARE:  The key is what will be in the Dodd bill and what won’t.  An example of the type of piece that is easy to miss if you aren’t absorbed in the business pages is this one by the Washington Post’s Tomoeh Murakami Tse over the weekend looking at investment advisers.

Here’s the week:

MONDAY 3/8

Pres. Obama:  Health care remarks, then hosts El Salvadorian Pres. Mauricio Funes, later meets with Sen. Charles Schumer (D-NY) and Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC).

Bair/Elmendorf:  Nat’l Assoc. for Business Economics’ policy conference “The New Normal? Policy Choices After the Great Recession.”  Speakers:  FDIC Chwmn. Sheila Bair and Congressional Budget Office Dir. Douglas Elmendorf.

Treasury Watch: Treasury Asst. Secy. for Financial Institutions Michael Barr speaks at the Nat’l Council of State Housing Agencies’ legislative conference.

TUESDAY 3/9

Pres. Obama:  Hosts Greek PM George Papandreou.

Romer:   Nat’l Assoc. for Business Economics’ policy conference “The New Normal? Policy Choices After the Great Recession.”  Speakers include:  President’s Council of Economic Advisers Chwmn. Christina Romer and Chicago Fed Pres. Charles Evans.

House Hearing:  House Financial Services Cmte. on community development financial institutions.  Witnesses include:  Treasury Asst. Secy. for Financial Institutions Michael Barr and Community Development Financial Institutions Fund Dir. Donna Gambrell.

WEDNESDAY 3/10

Economic Report:  Mortgage Bankers Assoc’s weekly mortgage application data.

Pres. Obama Meets with Haitian Pres. Rene Preval, later delivers health care remarks.

House Hearing:  House Appropriations Cmte’s Financial Services Subcmte. on 2011 financial services appropriations.  Witness:  Treasury Secy. Geithner.

House Hearing:  House Financial Services Cmte’s on Financial Institutions and Consumer Credit Subcmte. on money service business regulation.

Econ Outlook:  George Washington Univ’s Elliot School hosts former Congressional Budget Office Dir. Douglas Holtz-Eakin for an economic address.

THURSDAY 3/11

Economic Reports:  Initial Unemployment Claims (for 3/6).

Pres. Obama:  Speech at the Export-Import Bank annual DC conference.

House Hearing:  House Appropriations Cmte’s Financial Services Subcmte. on 2011 financial services appropriations.  Witness:  SEC Chwmn. Mary Schapiro.

House Hearing:  House Financial Services’ Housing and Community Opportunity Subcmte. on draft legislation (FHA Reform Act of 2010).

House Hearing:  House Financial Services’ Capital Markets, Insurance and Govt. Sponsored Enterprises Subcmte. on “Corporate Governance after Citizens United.”

Senate Hearing:  Senate Commerce, Science and Transportation Cmte. on Comcast-NBC deal.

COP (TARP Panel) Watch:  New America Foundation discusses Consumer Financial Protection Agency with Congressional Oversight Panel (aka TARP Oversight Panel) Chwmn. Elizabeth Warren and Mother Jones DC Bur. Chief David Corn.

FRIDAY 3/12

Economic Report:  Retail Sales (for Feb).

Secy. Geithner:  Treasury Secy. Geithner and Export-Import Bank of United States Chmn. and Pres. Fred Hochberg before the Export-Import Bank of United States annual conference.

U.N. Address:  Secretary of State Clinton to address the U.N. on women’s issues.

LOOK AHEAD:

March 16^th:  Federal Open Market Cmte. meeting.

March 18^th:  Pres. Obama’s self imposed deadline for movement on health care reform.

March 23^rd:  House Financial Services Cmte. on the future of housing finance.  Witnesses invited include:  Treasury Secy. Timothy Geithner and HUD Secy. Shaun Donovan. [Editor’s Note:  Originally scheduled for 3/2/10].

For our MBA readers and lawyers here’s the legislative text sent to the Hill regarding the Volcker Rule.  The question we ask ourselves – between this release and the current CFPA debate going on – does this make finance reform more or less likely to pass this year?

Meanwhile, here’s the summary of the  “Volcker Rule Released 3 3 10” that has been passed around to journalists in DC.  We suggest the Wall Street Journal’s Damian Paletta’s cogent write.

WHY YOU CARE:  This expands into the area of non-banks – AND – it now touches on the ability for financial firms to grow.  Both of those are beyond the initial headlines.

The Weekly Crib Sheet for March 1^st-5^th:  Yes, we’re late this week.  Mea culpa, we went to post yesterday but flinched given the nature of talks going on in the Senate Banking Cmte. on financial regulatory reform.  So here we are, a day late, and marginally a day wiser.  The stories you’ll see on the front pages and network newscasts this week will be – a) quake aftermath (additionally noting that Secy. of State Hillary Clinton travels throughout Central and South America this week), b) Democrats scramble: You likely hear more about the fate of New York Gov. David Patterson (D-NY) and House Ways and Means Chmn. Charlie Rangel (D-NY), plus the Texas primary will get coverage dissecting the Republican vote, and c) the Academy Awards (yes, this always crowds out news especially toward Friday with the awards show on Sunday).  However, as always, there will be a number of business stories that we think will jump beyond the business section and on to the front page…

MBA readers here’s WHY YOU CARE:

1)  Financial Regulatory Reform:  What we know:  Senate Banking Cmte. Chmn. Christopher Dodd does not disappoint when it comes to surprises.  The Fed has gone from losing oversight mojo to gaining strength in a scaled back Consumer Financial Protection Agency.  We’d like to note that there are two arguments going on regarding the CFPA:  1) scope and 2) real estate.  What’s interesting to us is that while the scope question is substantive in regards to how business gets done, the real estate question is essentially about independence.  Somehow the deck chair shuffling took on a larger role than the substantive questions.  We concede that the press can only report what it knows – and the deck chair shuffling is easier to do reading tea leaves than actual legislative language when the Senate Banking Cmte. is on lock down.  Unlike last week that offered a number of easy hearing platforms to explore a new draft bill from Chmn. Dodd, this week is anemic in comparison save for a Senate Banking Cmte. hearing, a House Financial Services Cmte. hearing and a TARP oversight hearing (both noted below).  Regarding timing: Once a deal is struck Tuesday, then there will need to be a bit of margin for the staff (that has lived in their offices throughout Chmn. Dodd’s renewed push) to fold the deal into the draft.  And, as always, even though Chmn. Dodd and Banking Cmte. member Sen. Bob Corker (R-TN) will be the focus reporting, we suggest you keep your eyes on ranking member Sen. Richard Shelby’s (R-AL) reaction to any reported deal, that should tell you how real it is.

2) Toyota:  There is one hearing this week (noted below) which will absolutely get play.

3) Jobs:  The jobs bill could be moved on this week.  The news that Capitol Hill doesn’t want is for the jobs bill to be stalled while the February unemployment numbers roll in come Friday.  This former journalist has looked at enough polls to know that when Congress stalls Americans just blame the party in power.

4)  Health care:  We think that in the wake of the televised health care summit last week you’ll see both parties trying to gain an upper hand by floating proposed trial balloon compromises.  The substance of the trial balloons this week will be a good clue to how the Democrats think they can move forward.

MBA wannabes here’s WHY YOU CARE:  There will be a lot of noise around the new Dodd draft this week.  We suggest that you keep your eyes peeled for stories detailing how large failing companies would be put to rest, and how it is paid for.  That will tell you not only how close the new draft is to being unveiled, but once dropped, how fast it will move to the Senate floor.

Here’s the week:

MONDAY 3/1

Earnings:  HSBC Finance Corp., MBIA Inc.

Economic Reports: Construction Spending (for Jan.), Personal Income/Spending (for Jan.).

Pres. Obama:  Remarks before the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.  Meets with Transportation Secy. Ray LaHood then Defense Secy. Robert Gates.

Dem Leadership:  House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-MD) speech at Brookings Institution.

Ghost of Enron: Supreme Court hears Skilling v. United States.

Fed Watch:  Fed Vice Chmn. Donald Kohn announces retirement (steps down in June).

TUESDAY 3/2

Economic Reports:  Car/Truck Sales (for Feb.).

Pres. Obama:  Jobs event in Savannah, GA.

Senate Hearing:  Senate Banking Cmte. on borrowing for small businesses.

Senate Hearing:  Senate Commerce, Science and Transportation Cmte. on Toyota recalls. Witnesses include: Transportation Secy. Ray LaHood and Toyota’s North America President and CEO Yoshimi Inaba.

TARP/Exec. Pay:  TARP Special Master for Exec. Compensation Ken Feinberg speaks at Princeton.

Texas: Holds primary, eyes on govenor’s mansion.

Anniversary:  First anniversary of AIG reporting the largest quarterly loss in U.S. corporate history (from the Council on Foreign Relations’ World Events Calendar).

WEDNESDAY 3/3

Pres. Obama:  Set to announce that if health care is not given an up or down vote, Democrats will use the reconciliation process to get a bill to his desk. [Editor's Note: Updated 3/3].

Volcker Rule:  Legislative text released.  [Editor's Note: Updated 3/3].

Economic Report:  Federal Reserve’s Beige Book (for March), Mortgage Bankers Assoc’s weekly mortgage information.

Senate Hearing:  Senate Finance Cmte. on 2010 trade agenda.  Witness:  U.S. Trade Rep. Ron Kirk.

House Hearing:  House Agriculture Cmte’s General Farm Commodities Subcmte. on commodity exchanges.

House Hearing:  House Financial Services Cmte. on 2011 estimates (report to House Budget Cmte.).

House Hearing:  House Budget Cmte. on 2011 budget resolution (part 1).

Geithner:  To meet with consumer groups on finance reform overhaul. [Editor's Note: Updated 3/3].

Treasury:  Counselor to the Treasury Secy. Gene Sperling speaks at the CDFI Coalition’s “2010 CDFI Institute.”

Memorial Service:  Capitol Hill service for the late Rep. John Murtha (D-PA).

THURSDAY 3/4

Earnings: Anheuser-Busch InBev

Economic Reports:  Factory Orders (for Jan.), Initial Unemployment Claims (for 2/27), and Pending Home Sales (for Jan.).

Geithner:  Meets with Pres. Obama and Vice Pres. Biden.  Additionally meets with Congressional Oversight (TARP) Panel members (see next entry). [Editor's Note: Updated 3/3].

TARP Hearing:  Congressional Oversight Panel hearing on TARP assistance given to Citigroup.  Witnesses include:  Citigroup CEO Vikram Pandit and Asst. Treasury Secy. for Financial Stability Herbert Allison.

House Hearing:  House Budget Cmte. on 2011 budget resolution (part 2).

Senate Hearing:  Senate Armed Services Cmte. on transfer of GITMO detainees.

House Hearing:  House Armed Services Cmte. on repeal of “Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell.”

FRIDAY 3/5

Economic Reports:  Unemployment Rate (for Feb.).

Treasury:  Treasury Chief Economist Alan Krueger to brief on Feb. unemployment numbers. [Editor's Note: Updated 3/5].

Romney:  Fmr. Gov. and fmr. presidential Candidate Mitt Romney (R) speech at the Natl. Press Club.

Joint Hearing:  Joint Economic Cmte. on February unemployment numbers.

House Hearing:  House Oversight and Govt. Reform Cmte. on the Recovery Act and California.  Witnesses include:  LA Mayor Antonia Villaraigosa.

Iraq Inquiry: British PM Gordon Brown appears before the UK Iraq War Inquirty.

SATURDAY 3/7

Iraq:  Parliamentary Elections (from the Council on Foreign Relations’ World Events Calendar).

SUNDAY 3/8

Academy Awards:  This night.

LOOK AHEAD:

March 12^th:  Pres. Obama hosts El Salvadorian Pres. Mauricio Funes.

March 12^th:  Secy. of State Clinton to address the UN on women’s issues.

March 16^th:  Federal Open Market Cmte. meeting.

March 23^rd:  House Financial Services Cmte. on the future of housing finance.  Witnesses invited include:  Treasury Secy. Timothy Geithner and HUD Secy. Shaun Donovan. [Editor’s Note:  Originally scheduled for 3/2/10].

The Weekly Crib Sheet for February 22^nd-26^th:  The stories you’ll see on the front pages and network newscasts will be – a) of course the Olympics, b) Afghanistan and Iran – for among other reasons Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton’s four (yes four) appearances on Capitol Hill this week, and c) health care – both because Pres. Obama released his own plan today (2/22) and Thursday’s (2/25) televised bipartisan summit.  However, as always, there will be a number of business stories that we think will jump beyond the business section and on to the front page…

MBA readers here’s WHY YOU CARE:

1)  Financial Regulatory Reform:  What we know:  Senate Banking Cmte. Chmn. Christopher Dodd and Republican committee member Sen. Bob Corker land back in Washington, DC this evening from a Congressional trip.  The question is how far along are they really?  Capitol Hill is a hive of busy staffers, which means that perhaps Chmn. Dodd will indeed deliver his new draft this week.  The bigger question is what will ranking Republican committee member Sen. Richard Shelby do?  Multiple reports have him ready with his own version should he not have a meeting of the minds with Chmn. Dodd, that of course would put Sen. Corker’s support for the new draft bill into question.  So the question is when does it come out – if this week then there are plenty of hearings where a new draft would provide ample fodder for various parties to make their case (all noted below):  Treasury Secy. Timothy Geithner testifies this week, so does Fed Chmn. Ben Bernanke (twice, including in front of Chmn. Dodd on Thursday), and House Financial Services Cmte. Chmn. Barney Frank has multiple hearings.  Even if a draft gets delayed – all of these hearings will help push the economy and financial regulatory reform to the front page.

2) Toyota:  There are two hearings this week on Capitol Hill, one of which is with Toyota Pres. Akio Toyoda.  The scope and size of the recall, plus his statements before Congress will undoubtedly generate important coverage.  Also, look for this coverage (like the health care summit) to squeeze some of the coverage from regulatory reform.

3) Jobs:  Should the Senate come together on a jobs bill look for detailed reporting on a) what actually got passed versus the bipartisan bill that Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid balked at, and b) the actual anticipated impact the bill will have on the unemployment numbers (and when).

4)  Health care:  As we noted last week, this made for TV debate will get a lot of coverage.  The question is whether the White House decides it is a win or not for them.  If so, could one on financial regulatory reform be that far off?

MBA wannabes here’s WHY YOU CARE:  Here’s how to cut through the clutter:  When Chmn. Dodd’s bill comes out look to see what Sen. Shelby says.  Specifically, look for pieces that parse his words.  That will tell you how long it will take (slow or fast) to get out of committee.  Then, of course, look for the pieces detailing what’s actually in the bill – especially when compared to his prior draft.

Here’s the week:

MONDAY 2/22

Earnings:  Fannie Mae, Leucadia National, The Blackstone Group.

Pres. Obama:  Unveils White House version of health care proposal, then hosts National Governors Assoc. members at the White House.

Senate:  Reconvenes to take up the jobs bill.

House:  Reconvenes as well.

SEC:  SEC Advisory Cmte. meeting.

Secy. Clinton:  Secy. of State Hillary Rodham Clinton speech at the Atlantic Council of the United States.

TUESDAY 2/23

Economic Reports:  Case-Shiller 20-city price report (for Dec.), Consumer Confidence (for Feb.).

House Hearing:  House Financial Services Cmte. hearing on the prospects for employment growth.

House Hearing:  House Energy and Commerce Cmte’s Oversight and Investigations Subcmte. on Toyota recalls.

Senate Hearing:  Senate Finance Cmte. on job creation.

Joint Economic Cmte.:  Hearing on job creation.  Witnesses include:  Congressional Budget Office Director Douglas Elmendorf.

Treasury:  Asst. Treasury Secy. for Financial Institutions Michael Barr at the Credit Union Association conference.

FDIC:  Presser on bank/thrift earnings with FDIC Chwmn. Sheila Bair.

WEDNESDAY 2/24

Earnings:  The Washington Post Company, Thomson Reuters Corporation.

Economic Report:    Mortgage Bankers Assoc. weekly mortgage application info, New Home Sales (for Jan.).

Pres. Obama:  Business Roundtable address.

Dodd/Frank:  House Financial Services Cmte. Chmn. Frank and Senate Banking Cmte. Chmn. Dodd both slated to speak at the Credit Union Association conference.

Senate Hearing:  Senate Homeland Security and Govt. Affairs Cmte. on 2011 budget.  Witness:  Homeland Security Secy. Janet Napolitano.

Senate Hearing:  Senate Foreign Relations Cmte. on 2011 budget.  Witness:  Secy. of State Hillary Rodham Clinton.

Senate Hearing:  Senate Appropriations Cmte’s State and Foreign Operations Subcmte. on 2011 budget.  Witness:  Secy. of State Hillary Rodham Clinton.

House Hearing:  House Oversight and Govt. Reform Cmte. on Toyota recalls.  Witnesses include:  Toyota Pres. Akio Toyoda, Transportation Secy. Ray LaHood and Toyota’s North America President and CEO Yoshimi Inaba.

House Hearing:  House Financial Services Cmte. on semiannual monetary report to Congress.  Witness:  Federal Reserve Chmn. Ben Bernanke.

House Hearing:  House Budget Cmte. on the 2011 budget.  Witness:  Treasury Secy. Timothy Geithner.

THURSDAY 2/25

Economic Reports:   FHFA Housing Price Index (for Dec.), Initial Unemployment Claims (for 2/20).

Pres. Obama:   Pres. Obama holds bipartisan televised health care summit.

Senate Hearing:  Senate Banking Cmte. on semiannual monetary report to Congress.  Witness:  Federal Reserve Chmn. Ben Bernanke.

House Hearing:  Senate Foreign Affairs Cmte. on 2011 budget.  Witness:  Secy. of State Hillary Rodham Clinton.

House Hearing:  House Appropriations Cmte’s State and Foreign Operations Sucmte. on 2011 budget.  Witness:  Secy. of State Hillary Rodham Clinton.

House Hearing:  House Financial Services Cmte. on “Compensation in the Financial Industry – Government Perspectives” focusing on “the pay practices of both private and public financial entities including AIG, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac where the federal government plays a role in reviewing and/or approving compensation.”  Witnesses include:  TARP Exec. Compensation Special Master Ken Feinberg.

House Hearing:  House Oversight and Govt. Reform Cmte. on foreclosures titled “What Needs to Change in the Administration’s Response.”

TARP Hearing:  Congressional Oversight Panel hearing on TARP assistance given to GMAC.  Witnesses include: GMAC CEO Michael Carpenter, GMAC CFO Robert Hull, Treasury Dept. Chief Restructuring Officer Jim Millstein, and Treasury Secy. Sr. Adviser Ron Bloom.

CBO:  Congressional Budget Office Director Douglas Elmendorf speech at the National Economists Club.

FRIDAY 2/26

Economic Report: Existing Home Sales (for Feb.) and Second Estimate of Fourth Quarter GDP.

Pres. Obama:  TBD.

Joint Hearing:  House Financial Services Cmte. and House Small Business Cmte. on small business lending specifically “the condition of small business and commercial real estate lending in local markets.”  Witnesses include:  Asst. Secretary for Financial Stability Herbert Allison, Jr.

Treasury:  Speech by Asst. Secretary for Economic Policy and Chief Economist Alan Krueger on “Achieving and Sustaining an Employment-Based Recovery: US and Global Strategies for Governments, Businesses, Workers and Families” at Brookings Institution.

TARP Pay:  TARP Exec. Compensation Special Master Ken Feinberg gives keynote address at Vanderbilt Univ. Law School’s conference on exec. compensation.

LOOK AHEAD:

February 28^th:  Winter Olympics closing ceremony.

March 1^st:  Ghost of Enron: Supreme Court hears Skilling v. United States.

March 2^nd:  House Financial Services Cmte. on the future of housing finance.  Witnesses invited include:  Treasury Secy. Timothy Geithner and HUD Secy. Shaun Donovan.

March 2^nd:  Senate Commerce, Science and Transportation Cmte. on Toyota recalls.

March 4^th:  Congressional Oversight Panel hearing on TARP assistance given to Citigroup.  Witnesses include:  Citigroup CEO Vikram Pandit and Asst. Treasury Secy. for Financial Stability Herbert Allison.

March 16^th:  Federal Open Market Cmte. meeting.