The Weekly Crib Sheet for April 19th-24th: Business/regulatory reform stories will have to compete this week with the Icelandic volcanic fallout, further coverage of Defense Secy. Robert Gates’ Iran memo documenting concerns over the country’s nuclear development trajectory, and the White House’s job search for the next Supreme Court Justice (see below Pres. Obama has a key meeting this week). As always, there are a number of key business stories – many right in the corridors of Congress that will have a shot at newscast leads and front page coverage.
MBA readers here’s WHY YOU CARE:
1) Financial Regulatory Reform: The Goldman Sachs/SEC story at the end of the day creates an incredible amount of pressure for the Senate to act on finance reform from a political perspective. That’s why the noise that there may be other cases is incredibly important. Keep an eye out for the stories outlining which Republican Senators would face the greatest pressure to support reform with these types of stories. Second, keep a look out for the next wave of SEC stories dripping out who might be the next Goldman Sachs. Lastly, it is worth noting that the timing of the SEC’s move on Goldman Sachs is certainly helpful to Democrats wanting to pass regulatory legislation. Seems like there’s space for reporting on the timing as well.
2) Financial Regulatory Reform – Lehman: Even if the SEC/Goldman Sachs story didn’t exist, there’s another event in Washington, DC this week that will help create a Democratic stalking horse for reform. In fact, it is a congressional hearing – so there’s a natural platform. It is the House Financial Services Cmte’s hearing on the Lehman Bankruptcy. Former Lehman CEO Richard Fuld is testifying, so is Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, Federal Reserve Chmn. Ben Bernanke, and yes – SEC Chwmn. Mary Schapiro. So in some ways the SEC/Goldman timing gets even better – you can bet that witness list will get some questions on SEC/Goldman as well as Lehman. Oh, and come Thursday Pres. Obama is in New York City holding an event to call on regulatory reform – in terms of political staging the above feels like good stage props.
3) Financial Regulatory Reform – Timing: At 10:30a this morning Senate Banking Cmte. Chmn. Christopher Dodd (D-CT) and Senate Banking Cmte. member Mark Warner (D-VA) hold a news conference on the status of financial regulatory reform. We think you’ll see questions regarding the $50 billion break up fund, which if dropped (or modified enough) could be the key for peeling away one of those 41 Republican Senators needed for support when regulatory reform hits the floor of the Senate. Keep you eyes and ears on those questions. Also, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid is expected to start the parliamentary process this week to bring reform to the Senate floor, we think we’ll get a better window into that as well. Oh, not to mention that the Senate Agriculture Cmte. is holding a derivatives hearing this week after pushing out draft legislation last week. [EDITOR'S NOTE: At the 10:30 presser Monday (4/19) Chmn. Dodd said the Senate would get a chance to vote this Wednesday (4/21) or Thursday (4/22), given the Obama regulatory reform event in NYC noted below (4/22) and the Senate Agriculture Cmte's Wednesday mark up, we'd lean toward Thursday].
4) Financial Regulatory Reform – Derivatives: Speaking of that the Senate Agriculture’s derivatives legislation, the Cmte. holds a mark up this week (Wednesday, noted below). Could be contentious given that the Cmte. was supposedly making great bipartisan progress in drafting only to suddenly put out something decidedly less so. What’s up? We hear that the Democrats are emboldened, and if that’s the case why compromise and receive grief from the more liberal wing of your party?
MBA wannabes here’s WHY YOU CARE: First, look for more stories on what the SEC is up to, if you see that the SEC is announcing what other firms it is going after then that will create an interesting dynamic for Democrats to press on regulatory reform. Second, look for stories on Monday’s (4/19) Dodd/Warner press conference. If they say that the $50 billion fund in the Dodd bill (that would be paid up front in order to have a fund to break up a failing institution during the next crisis) is going the way of the dodo bird, then that’s a signal that they think they can grab one of the 41 Republicans – thus reaching the needed 60 votes in the Senate to pass regulatory reform.
Here’s the week:
MONDAY 4/19 (15th Anniv. of the Oklahoma City Bombing)
Dodd/Warner: Chmn. Dodd and Senate Banking Cmte. member Sen. Mark Warner (D-VA) hold a press conference on financial overhaul today at 10:30a.
Treasury Watch: Asst. Treasury Secy. for Financial Stability Herbert Allison Jr. on “Rebuilding U.S. Competitiveness at the International Economic Development Council.
TUESDAY 4/20
Earnings: Apple Inc., Bank of New York Mellon Corp., Goldman Sachs, Johnson & Johnson, The Coca Cola Company, Yahoo, Inc.
VP Biden: VP Joe Biden, fmr. Treasury Secy. Robert Rubin and fmr. Treasury Dep. Secy. Roger Altman at the Brookings Institution’s conference on “From Recession to Recovery to Renewal.”
Lehman Bankruptcy Hearing: House Financial Services Cmte. hearing on the Lehman bankruptcy. Witnesses include: Treasury Secretary Geithner, Fed Chmn. Bernanke, SEC Chwmn. Schapiro, Court Appointed Examiner Anton Valukas, fmr. Lehman Chmn. and CEO Richard Fuld, and fmr. Lehman Audit Cmte. Chmn. Thomas Cruikshank.
Senate Hearing: Senate Finance Cmte. on “The President’s Proposed Fee on Financial Institutions Regarding TARP.” Witness: TARP Special Inspector General Neil Barofsky.
WEDNESDAY 4/21
Earnings: AT&T, E*Trade, Moody’s Corporation, Morgan Stanley, Starbucks, Suntrust, Wells Fargo & Company.
Pres. Obama: Meets with Dem/GOP Senate leaders on Supreme Court vacancy.
Senate Agriculture Cmte.: Holds mark-up on The Wall Street Transparency and Accountability Act of 2010 (derivatives bill).
Reg Reform to Floor: Senate Banking Cmte. Chmn. Dodd said Monday (4/19) that today is a possible day for his legislation to be brought to the floor.
House Financial Services Cmte. Hearing: Subcmte. on Capital Markets, Insurance and Govt. Sponsored Enterprises on “Corporate Governance and Shareholder Empowerment.”
THURSDAY 4/22
Earnings: American Express Company, Fifth Third Bancorp, PepsiCo, The New York Times Company, Verizon,
Economic Reports: Continuing Unemployment Claims (for 4/10/10), Existing Home Sales (for March), FHFA Home Price Index (for Feb.), Initial Unemployment Claims (for 4/17), and Producer Price Index (for March).
Pres. Obama: Travels to New York City, holds an event to call for financial regulatory reform.
Reg Reform to Floor: Senate Banking Cmte. Chmn. Dodd said Monday (4/19) that today is a possible day for his legislation to be brought to the floor.
Hearing on China’s Exchange Rate: Senate Banking Cmte.
FRIDAY 4/23
Economic Reports: Durable Order (for March) and New Homes Sales (for March).
Secy. Geithner: Meets with G-20 finance ministers in Washington, DC.
Senate Hearing on Credit Rating Agencies: Senate Homeland Security and Govt. Affairs Cmte. on “Wall Street and the Financial Crisis: The Role of Credit Rating Agencies.”
Digital Money Policy: American Enterprise Institution holds a discussion on “Digital Money: Trends and Policy Challenges.” Participants include: Visa’s William Sheedy, American Bankers Assoc’s Wayne Abernathy, and Federal Reserve’s Geoffrey Gerdes.
SATURDAY (4/24)
Secy. Geithner: Meets with International Monetary Fund’s International Monetary Finance Cmte. in Washington, DC.
SUNDAY (4/25)
Secy. Geithner: Joins the World Bank’s Washington, DC meeting.
LOOK AHEAD:
April 27th: Senate Homeland Security and Govt. Affairs Permanent Subcmte. on Investigations hearing on ‘”he Role of Investment Banks’ as part of a series on ‘Wall Street and the Financial Crisis.’” Witnesses include: Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein.
April 30th: Center for American Progress and the Hamilton Project host an event on the changing global economy. Charlie Rose hosts. Guests include: NYC Mayor Michael Bloomberg, Natl. Econ. Council Dir. Lawrence Summers, Center for American Progress Pres. John Podesta, fmr. Treasury Secy. Robert Rubin.